Bread & Circuses

The popular claim

The CrownGood evening, couch. Comfortable? Excellent. That was my idea.

The FanSorry, who is this? The game's on.

The CrownI am the Elites. All of them. I keep you fed, I keep you amused, and while you watch the game, I run the country.

The FanYou run the country from where?

The CrownFrom up here. Look at the strings.

The CheckerHe loves this story, and I can tell you why. A secret plan means somebody important is in charge. Him.

The CrownAnd who are you?

The CheckerI'm the one with the magnifying glass. Bread and circuses: the idea that sports and gossip are a plan to keep you quiet. Everybody has heard it. Almost nobody has tested it.

JuvenalI wrote it.

The CrownOh no.

JuvenalThree words, nineteen centuries ago, and you have been misusing them ever since. I am Juvenal. I am a satirist. I have been furious since the second century.

The FanIs he always like this?

The CheckerAlways. Here's how this works. Nine panels. Ten calls. You make each call before you see the answer. First one is free. Move the slider. Who put you on that couch? Them, or you?

The CrownPick me. Everyone picks me.

JuvenalEveryone is wrong. Turn the page.

What Juvenal actually wrote

JuvenalRead it slowly. I sweated over every syllable.

The CheckerSatire Ten, early in the second century, probably the hundred and twenties. Line by line, Juvenal.

JuvenalNow that no one buys our votes.

The FanBuys?

JuvenalVendimus. We sell. We, the voters, used to sell. Then nobody was buying, and the public cast off its cares.

The CrownCares I removed. You're welcome.

JuvenalSilence. The people that once bestowed commands, consulships, legions and all else,

Juvenalnow meddles no more.

JuvenalAnd longs eagerly for just two things.

The FanGo on.

JuvenalPanem et circenses. Bread and games!

The FanHonestly? That sounds like a good Sunday.

JuvenalIt is an insult, you sofa! And it is aimed at you. Not at the emperor. At the crowd.

The CrownNot at me? I'm not even in it?

The CheckerNot in those lines. The people are the subject of the sentence. But a satirist is a witness with a grudge, so let's check the calendar.

The CheckerEnd of the second century before Christ. Rome has fifty seven days of games a year, and the people still vote on the Field of Mars.

The CheckerBy the reign of Augustus, modern counts run from sixty one to seventy seven days. And a few more than two hundred thousand men draw public grain. That number comes from his own monument.

The CrownMy finest work.

The CheckerFourteen, after Christ. Tiberius moves the elections from the Field of Mars into the Senate.

The FanHold on. They took the vote?

The CheckerTacitus says the biggest elections were already the emperor's choice. Then he writes this. Nor did the people complain of having the right taken from them, except in mere idle talk.

The FanSo somebody took it, and everyone shrugged.

The CheckerAnd a few lines later, same chapter, the tribunes ask to put on new games in the name of Augustus.

The CrownVotes out, games in. Beautiful.

JuvenalYou see? I told you. They gave up.

The FanYou left out the part where it got taken, pal.

JuvenalI am a poet. I do not do footnotes.

The CheckerThen the games keep growing. Ninety three days under Claudius. By the calendar of three fifty four, about one hundred seventy five.

The FanThat's basically every other day. I like these people.

Three culprits

The CheckerSame phrase, three culprits. Juvenal blames the crowd.

JuvenalCorrect.

The CheckerThe modern version blames the elites.

The CrownAlso correct. Finally.

The CheckerNow here's the awkward one. Fronto, tutor to Marcus Aurelius, same century as Juvenal. He praises an emperor for looking after the actors and the charioteers.

The CrownWho?

The CheckerHe calls it political wisdom. The Roman People, he writes, are held fast by two things above all, the corn dole and the shows.

The CrownHa! Somebody finally said it. Put that on my tomb.

JuvenalA courtier. Of course he did.

The CheckerSo you get to keep that one, Crown. A Roman insider wrote it down as statecraft. One sentence, though, and it's a compliment. It proves the idea existed. It doesn't prove your strings work.

The FanSo is there any modern case with actual numbers?

The CheckerItaly. A commercial network reached different towns at different times in the nineteen eighties. Its entertainment shows were mostly light. Then the owner, Silvio Berlusconi, ran for office.

The CrownNow that's a man who reads the brief.

The CheckerTowns that got the channels early gave his party about one extra point in nineteen ninety four. People who watched as children grew up less civic-minded, and more open to his pitch.

The FanThat's the plan, then?

The CheckerThat's the effect. Nobody has shown that it was the plan. And few networks have an owner on the ballot.

The couch has a seating plan

The FanEveryone in this story talks about the sports guy. Do I get a say?

The CheckerYou get a slider. Of the most devoted American sports fans, what share are men?

The FanMost of us. Sure.

The CheckerSeventy nine percent. And across all fans, sixty two. Now the second one. The biggest game of the year. What share of the Super Bowl audience is women?

The CrownVery few, surely. Women have the gossip. I arranged it.

The CheckerForty seven and a half percent, in twenty twenty four. The biggest game in the country is close to even.

The CrownThat's not what the strings told me.

The CheckerHere's your other tidy idea going down. Men watch more television overall than women. Two point eight hours a day against two point four.

JuvenalWhat of the gossip?

The CheckerSome of that holds. Entertainment news has skewed female in Pew's surveys, and shows like Real Housewives run heavily female. The split is real. It's narrower than the joke, and it depends on what you measure.

The FanSo there's no sports guy and gossip girl.

The CheckerThere's a couch. Most people on it are watching something.

The night before the vote

The FanFine. Let me say it before he does. Football doesn't hurt anybody.

The CheckerTwo political scientists, Potoski and Urbatsch, checked. They took United States general elections from nineteen seventy to twenty fourteen and looked at the Monday Night Football game the night before.

The CrownMonday. The eve of the vote. My kind of scheduling.

The CheckerNobody scheduled it to beat you, Fan. So what happens to turnout when the game is good? Make your call.

The FanNothing. It's one game.

The CheckerGo from a dull game to a really good one, twenty fifth percentile to seventy fifth, and turnout falls by two to eight percentage points.

The FanTwo to eight? From one game?

The CheckerThat's the estimate. The effect runs a bit weaker for people who care more about politics. And on today's electorate, a single point is about two point four million people.

The CrownI didn't even have to do anything!

JuvenalYou never do.

The CheckerThis is the part everyone misses. The paper's word is opportunity cost. A good game takes the time and energy you would have spent on voting. No strings required.

The FanSo I'm the villain now.

The CheckerYou're a guy who likes a good game. Television overall has a stronger record. When it first arrived in America, it pulled down midterm turnout. In presidential years, the effect wasn't statistically different from zero.

The CheckerFor scale. The twenty twenty five Super Bowl averaged one hundred twenty seven point seven million viewers. All ballots in twenty twenty four, about one hundred fifty seven million.

The CrownI should have run for the Super Bowl.

The people on the couch vote

The FanCan I have some good news now?

The CheckerYou can. A twenty twenty five survey of more than five thousand Americans sorted people by how much sport they follow. Look at the top fans against non-fans.

The FanShow me.

The CheckerRegistered to vote, ninety two percent against seventy five. Ever voted in a local election, sixty four against thirty five. Follow public affairs most of the time, fifty three against twenty nine.

The FanHa! Who's pacified now, Crown?

The CrownThis can't be right. Those were my best people.

JuvenalImpossible. I have met them.

The FanI'm a citizen, Juvenal. Read it and weep.

The CheckerEasy, champ. Top fans are twelve percent of adults. Now add the casual fans to the chart.

The FanWhy are you doing that?

The CheckerBecause casual fans sit at or below non-fans on registering and on local voting. So being a fan isn't the thing. And look at who the top fans are.

The CheckerSeventy nine percent men, against thirty among non-fans. Thirty nine percent earn over a hundred thousand dollars, against sixteen. Wealthier people vote more, game or no game.

The FanSo the sport might not be doing it.

The CheckerIt might not. It's a survey, it's self-reported, and it shows a pattern, not a cause. But here's what it does kill: the idea that the people watching are the people who checked out.

JuvenalI withdraw nothing. I merely note it.

A room with both sides in it

The FanFine, it's not proof. But here's what I know. Guy next to me at the bar disagrees with me on everything. We still high-fived in overtime.

The CrownDisgusting.

The CheckerThat one has numbers too. Let's sort them. For each finding, make the call: do the top fans come out better, the same, or worse than non-fans?

The CheckerA place to enjoy something with people they disagree with. Seventy nine percent against fifty two. Better.

The CheckerFeeling they belong in their community. Eighty seven against seventy four. Better.

The FanThat's what I'm saying.

The CheckerWarmth toward the other party. No difference. The high-five stays at the bar.

The FanHuh.

The CheckerAgreeing that political violence is sometimes needed. Eighteen percent against twelve. Worse.

JuvenalThere it is. There is your arena.

The FanHey. That's a small number.

The CheckerIt's a small number, and it's still the wrong direction. A shared room doesn't fix what people walk in with.

JuvenalWhy do they still come, then? The old clubs are gone.

The CheckerMany are. Men reporting no close friends reached fifteen percent in a twenty twenty one survey, and Pew found men and women about equal by twenty twenty four. Sports stayed one of the few places men still gather. That link is an argument, not a measurement.

JuvenalAn argument. I can respect an argument.

Attention is finite

The CheckerOne more call. Time diaries. How long does the average American spend on civic obligations in a day?

The CrownAn hour? Please let it be low.

The CheckerIt rounds to zero. Television is one hundred fifty seven minutes.

The CrownYes! Yes! The strings!

The CheckerDon't celebrate. Jury duty and voting are rare, so a daily average was always going to be tiny. But now you try. Move minutes off the screen and see what they turn into.

The FanFifteen minutes a day. What's that get me?

The CheckerNinety one hours a year. That's a lot of city council.

The FanNobody's ever said that sentence with a smile.

The CheckerAn Indonesian study found more television channels meant fewer community groups and fewer meetings. And no change in how well those meetings ran.

JuvenalSo they spent less time and lost nothing?

The CheckerIn that study, the groups got thinner and the governing stayed the same. Attention is finite. It gets spent on things you picked. That's a plainer story than strings, and a harder one.

The CrownHarder for whom?

The CheckerFor you. Nobody needs you for it.

Test the claim

The CheckerTime to read the verdict.

The CrownWas it a plan?

The CheckerIn Rome, part of it. A Roman wrote it down as statecraft, and Italy gives you one modern case with a measured effect. As a general theory of your couch, no.

JuvenalWas I right?

The CheckerAbout the shrug, yes. About the crowd choosing it, you left out who took the vote.

The FanAnd me?

The CheckerOne great game can cost turnout, and the top fans still out-vote the people who don't watch. Both are true. You're allowed to hold two facts.

The CrownSo nobody's holding the strings.

The CheckerSome people hold some strings. Most of the couch is just people, picking.

JuvenalI shall call it Satire Seventeen.

The FanYou wrote sixteen.

JuvenalI am owed one.

The CheckerGo back to the slider. Same question as the start. Who put you on that couch? See if you moved.

The FanIs the game still on?

The CheckerGo vote first.

JuvenalEvery source for this is listed at the end of the page, and every one of them is linked.

The CheckerThis was Bread and Circuses. A Feline Union publication.